Alabaster, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

297
FXUS64 KBMX 301817
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
117 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025

The boundary is currently moving through the state, with showers
and thunderstorms expected along and ahead of this boundary
through the afternoon and early evening. Instabilities will be
between 2500-3500 J/kg with LI values between -7 and -9. the wind
profile will be mostly unidirectional, with increasing winds
slightly with height. PW values will be around 1.7 inches. All
this to say that there is enough energy for storms to become
strong to severe and produce damaging winds as the main threat,
and large hail. This activity will quickly move east through the
afternoon and evening. Winds will be gusting along and slightly
behind the boundary, with gusts as high as 25 to 30 mph.

The stronger storms are expected to move to the east of the area
between around 5 and 6 pm this evening, with a low chance for
scattered to isolated showers for a couple of hours before
northerly dry air prevails, limiting any further activity. Skies
should quickly clear through the late evening and early night,
with low temperatures tonight in the mid to upper 50s, several
degrees below normal for this time of year.

Saturday, high pressure starts to develop over the state, with
mostly clear skies expected. Temperatures will warm into the low
to mid 80s, a degree or two below normal for this time of year,
though with northerly flow prevailing with dry air advected into
the state, RH values will be much lower, in the 40s through the
afternoon.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 115 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025

Models have trended a little further north with the shortwave on
Sunday, so have edged PoPs that way. Still cannot rule out some
showers across the central and southern sections of the area, but
probabilities are too low to included right now. After that the
broad ridge will build and we warm up each day. Increased rain
chances at the end of the week, especially in the north. Better
details on that over the next few days.

16

Previous long-term discussion:
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025

A quick moving shortwave will pass across the area on Sunday
resulting in an increase in cloud cover and perhaps some isolated to
scattered showers across northern parts of the area. Following the
shortwave will be a broad mid-level ridge which will foster several
days of warm and summertime weather as it shifts across the eastern
CONUS and then establishes along the Eastern Seaboard by
Wednesday. Temperatures will gradually trend warmer each day with
highs back into the upper 80s to lower 90s by midweek. A front
will move towards the area on Thursday, but may struggle to push
into the area as the ridge remains extended across the Southeast.
Nonetheless, the front may provide increased rain chances on
Thursday, especially across the west and northwest.

86/Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025

A boundary will quickly move to the southeast through the
afternoon and early evening. KMGM could see thunderstorms, though
the rest of the TAF sites in central AL should be north of the
boundary and the highest chances for thunderstorm development.
Showers are possible through the afternoon at each site except
KMGM, behind that boundary. Ceilings will linger in the MVFR
category as low level moisture remains over the area along the
boundary. Drier air is expected to quickly filter in behind the
boundary, with all conditions improving from north to south
through the evening and overnight.

NOTE: AMD NOT SKED for KMGM due to obs not transmitting properly.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A cold front will push south of the area this evening. Winds
will shift to the northwest behind the front. Drier conditions
return this weekend with min RH ranging from 45 to 50% on
Saturday and Sunday. Soils will remain saturated for a few
days, and there are no fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     54  82  58  82 /   0   0   0  20
Anniston    54  82  60  82 /   0   0   0  10
Birmingham  56  83  61  82 /   0   0   0  10
Tuscaloosa  57  84  61  84 /   0   0   0  10
Calera      57  83  62  82 /   0   0   0  10
Auburn      57  82  63  82 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  57  84  61  83 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        57  83  61  84 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...24